Present Circumstances of Current Earthquake Prediction and my Experience with Earthquake 

It was big earthquake From northeast to central of Japan about Magnitude 7.4 last week, and there were also observed Tsunami. I always wondered why earthquake came suddenly and we can't forecast. I also curious about why always earthquake attack in Japan.

First, I research about the reason   why always earthquake attack in Japan, and I found that there are several reasons.  Japan is contained in the circum-Pacific orogenic belt. Incidentally, west coast of US such as Oregon, Washington, and Californian are also contained in the circum-Pacific orogenic belt. In the circum-Pacific orogenic belt, there are many plates under the sea. When those plates moved, an earthquake will occur. So the reason why earthquake always attacks in Japan or in the circum-Pacific orogenic belt is there are many plates press each other, so the plates move easily. Especially Japan has a high earthquake rate because there are three plates(Pacific Plate, Philippine Sea Plate, Land plate, North American plate and Eurasian plate) are pressing each other in under the Japan. For that reasons, Japan is always attacked by the earthquake.

Secondly, I research about how people predict from the earthquake. I always heard about some people said that they can predict when and where the earthquake occur. In my opinion, I don't believe about this prediction, because if the person can predict before why many people died from the earthquake and why they don't help people  ?. This question always comes to my mind.
Recently the current science and technology are not advanced enough to predict just before the earthquake. But some area's scientific observation was done sufficiently, so scientists might predict before. In order to predict an earthquake, it is essential that the monitoring system is in place at all times and most of the earthquakes are impossible to predict in recent science.

In addition, I will talk about my experience with the earthquake. about 5 years ago when I was high school student, huge earthquake attacked in the northeast of Japan. My house is in central but my high school was in close to the northeast and I was living in a dormitory. In this earthquake, I learned many things. The most important thing is we have to do evacuation drills seriously. Because when the real earthquake came, everyone run away from the classroom, and every stair was blocked by people.
Some student were jumped from the second floor to the first floor. So if we seriously tackle evacuation drills, panic can be prevented.

Many people say that earthquake will attack in Oregon, and it will occur many problems after the earthquake such as food shortage, electronic shortage and transport problem. However I have an experience about earthquake, so I can behaved right action. Finally the most important thing is to practice and prepare for emergency happen.

Territories and Territorial water Issues around Japan

Since When I was young I always heard about this topic and right now I feel like it's become the most strong problem between neighbor countries. So I would like to talk about this topic.

Basic information about Territorial water in Japan.

The land area is 61st in the world but combining the area of territorial waters and exclusive economic zones, it's going be No. 6 in the world. So we have a huge area of sea.

The reason Japan keeps huge sea area is there are four islands in East-West north-south, and these islands are surrounding Japan.  

* How territorial waters problems are effect our life

In this, our territorial water area has enormous resources such as Methane hydrate and rare metal and many kinds of ores, and most important things fish. I researched many resources, and I found Japan used to being one of the most countries eat fish and seafood. Recently No.6 in the world.  It still keeps huge fish consumption. So if we loss territorial waters and exclusive economic zones, it will have the huge effect on our life because we almost every day eat fish. As I show you in below.

Rank	Country	Fish Consumption Per Capita (2011)
1.	Iceland	90.1
2.	Malaysia	58.1
3.	South Korea	58.1
4.	Portugal	56.8
5.	Japan	53.7
6.	Norway	53.4
7.	Lithuania	43.4
8.	Spain	42.4
9.	Finland	35.6
10.	France	34.6

Japan have three island problem in our territorial water. I didn't know a lot about this problem so I research about it.

* First is Senkaku island 

Senkaku islands  are a group of uninhabited islands controlled by Japan in the close to the East China Sea.
there are several problems About Claims on territorial rights
Senkaku Islands seen from civilian aircraft (Fisheries Island, Kitakojima, Minami-Kojima from the left)
The official opinion of the Japanese government is that the transfer procedure of the Senkaku Islands fulfills the preoccupation theoretical procedure referred to in international law and "There is no territorial issue in this area", but the Chinese government and the Taiwanese government, in 1971 Claiming territorial rights from here on and claiming that "territorial rights issue exists". Although it belongs to Ishigaki-shi, Okinawa Prefecture in the administrative division of Japan, it claims that Taiwan belongs to Yilan County. So China and Taiwan began to assert their ownership after 1968 (Showa 43) confirmed the possibility of massive underground resources reserves such as oil and natural gas in the seabed survey near the Senkaku Islands.  In my opinion, this information seems like they just want to take this island because there are a lot of money under the sea. Right now Japan just Give pressure to China or Taiwan so they cannot control this islands.

* second is Takeshima 

From 1603– 1868 Takeshima had established its ownership through fishery by Japan.

After that In 1905, the government formally decided Cabinet transfer of Takeshima's Shimane prefecture. 

  In 1945 Japan lost the world war 2.  After that Allied countries said territories that Japan gets during world war second, we have to release all of it.
After world war, South Korea said: "we need to get the Takeshima back too". But US Assistant Secretary of State David Dean Rusk said this island is Japan's land for a long time ago, so he declined the Korea's request. Until now Korean people are very crazy with this island. For me and Japanese people, we don't really care and It is not effect for people, so we feel like they speak and fight with this topic by themselves. So in elementary, middle and high school I never learned about this topic and I don't want to learn about it because since I came to the US, I met many Korean people and they like to about this topic and many history problems. My opinion is even they talk to us we can't do anything, I just perceive that is helpless action. Some people ask us to apologize but I didn't do anything why I have to say sorry. 
＊Third is Four northern islands

About this problem call Northern Territories issue.

Chishima archipelago, Sakhalin Island Change in Japan and Russian territory
1855	According to Shimoda Treaty, the south of the island is Japanese territory and  beyond that it becomes Russian territory. Regarding Sakhalin Island, the arguments of both sides do not come together, starting to live from both countries.
1875	Karafuto to Russian territory and Kurushima archipelago to Japan territory by Kura Kura Treaty.
1904	By the Treaty of Portsmouth, the southern half of Sakhalin Island will become the territory of Japan and another island will become the territory of Japan.

 But in 1941 World War 2, Japan and Russia contract about Soviet–Japanese Neutrality Pact. Both countries promised to not attack the territories each other for 5 years. During the World war 2, Russia broke the pact. They started to attack the Four northern island. After that Japan loses the war and since 1945 Russia have taken those island until now. The response to this problem, my opinion is the four northern islands are very far and tie is like the wasteland.

I don't understand why both countries are the focus on these islands. However, both countries mention there are a lot of benefits to taking this island.

* Conclusion 

There are too many problems with neighbor countries. Those problems are since long time ago and never fix or improve. Also, I always hear that both countries are progressing a good way but after that come back to beginning again. I don't think both countries are going to agree with each other but I want to see both agree by the peaceful way until I died. 

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Future of International student in the United States

From 2 days ago  many people are protesting on the streets. I heard that many people are going to move Canada. I feel curious about this topic how will affect for International student.

First of all what I saw on the Tweeter is this."When foreigners attend our great colleges & want to stay in the U.S., they should not be thrown out of our country."   
So it looks like he is welcome us.

Reaction of Other Counties 

Reaction of other countries about Constitutional interpretation change of Japan, many countries are welcome to  exercise acceptance of collection of self defense.
So far, there are only China and South Korea of the neighboring countries are Opposite countries.

Especially Southeast Asian countries that are threatened their territory to China, have expressed their just to strong welcome as "I want you to fast decision.". To tolerate the exercise of the right to collective self-defense Japan can expect to be a deterrent to China. If Japan change the constitution.

As a result every member of United Nation have individual and collection of self defense and every countries can exercise by themselves, so Japan supposed to be exercised both self defense naturally said Prime Minister Abe. For this speech, most of countries are welcome with this idea because they will have new country to support together. On the other hand, reaction of other countries and inside of country are totally different. so I 'm looking forward to seeing how the Prime Minister is going to gain understanding of population.

Next is going to be Possibility of conscription system with new constitution of article 9. 

Daiki Kato

constitutional reform and collective self defense 

Right now pros and cons of the exercise acceptance of the right of collective self-defense 

has become a problem. I didn't understand what the constitution related to the collective self defense.

First of all let see the Chapter of the Constitution of Japan Article 9.

How they organized and explain about self defense. 

According to Constitution, I don't see anywhere about "You can not exercise the right of collective self-defense". However they were Interpreted the sentence as you can not exercise the right of collective self-defense so far.
There are two choices that can exercise the right of collective. First is constitutional reform, adding new sentences and words or delete the all Article 9 to make new constitution of article 9. On one way is to change the "constitutional interpretation".
Right now  what Prime minister Abe try to do is to change the constitutional interpretation.
But the problem is that changing the constitutional interpretation is not easy.

In order to change the constitutional interpretation there are no specific procedures or rule.
So right now prime minister just need to open the meeting and get cabinet decision in congress.

As a result, prime minister need to get public understanding and agree in congress. So it is still so far to achieve the goal.

Next is going to talk about reaction of other countries.  

Daiki Kato

Writing 121

Individual right to self-defense VS Right of collective self-defense

Before I start to talk about comparing between two self-defenses, I will talk about Self-defense rights in the Charter of the United Nations by very simple way like everyone can understand.

First of all, I'm going to describe "Individual right of self defense".

"The individual right of self-defense " is that the right of self-defense recognized in the United Nations member countries by the United Nations Charter Article 51.

For example, If the country is subjected to armed attack from other countries, it will be right to fight back using the forces in order to defend the country by under international law.

So far,  exercising of this individual right of self-defense is allowed by under the Constitution Article 9.

So Let me summarized simple way. 

When the other country attacked to Japan, 

Japan can defend by using Military force. In case  other country attacked to the Japan we can exercise the individual right to self defense to defending. If the country keep attacking for a long time, the United Nation member countries can help Japan to defend together. 

However, Japan was proclaiming that we are not going to help fighting so of course none of countries are going to help Japan defensing.

• Next is going to be about collective security in UN